Feb 4, 2013 4:00am EST
, that's the last thing the eu or the eurozone needs right now. just when we get the signal of the panic button in the eurozone debt crisis, we have another cloud on the horizon. but that's nothing angela merkel can influence. i'm sure it's going to be a topic of discussion saying, look, is this going to be a government crisis? can you avert this? that is nothing we will hear about. the official communique will sound similar to what we heard out of paris, out of the monte meeting. don't expect a result on this budget summit yet on the table and on we go to the next rendezvous in terms of the budgets. we've got another eu summit in march, which is not -- which is not ear marked, of course, as a budget meeting, but i daresay we will trickle along nicely or unnicely until finally they reach an agreement on the next budget. in terms of the eurozone debt crisis, of course, that's the other point of discussion. at the moment, there's a little bit of cautious shoulder padd g padding, but it will be a bit more cautious because of the aforementioned festering crisis in spain. obviously, what we'
Feb 4, 2013 1:00pm EST
as they are inside the d.c. beltway. they do not want to lose their jobs. if the e.u. implodes they all lose their jobs. they will continue to paper over this thing and try to buy more time. ashley: yeah. tracy: take it back to here at home. let's play this out for people. state of the union comes, market falls off. should i make a shopping list of things to buy when it does. >> yeah. i think that is a real good strategy. we've been fairly constructive. i came in, i got into a slight argument with one of the anchors here coming into one of the fiscal cliffs talking about armageddon. i advised it would not be armageddon. i lived inside the beltway. when push comes to shove the boys and girls typically come together. i think they will do the same thing on the upcoming debt ceiling and sequestration. ashley: so if we do have this pullback after the state of the union, jeff, what sectors or stocks in particular do you like? >> i actually like all the sectors except the consumer staples. a lot of portfolio managers, professional money has been hiding out in the consumer staples because they were
Feb 4, 2013 9:00am EST
of the bulge names in part because of the eu risk is higher in those. how serious do you take a day like today on that front? >> well, our biggest concern really is the continued unstable nature of greece. i think spain and italy will be fine as long as greece doesn't create a chain reaction, which i think it will. and i'm still very concerned about what is going on there. but as you guys pointed out, you know, you came into early 10, early 11, early 12 and felt good, trends were good and the eu kind of put the kibosh on ceo confidence and capital markets activity. i'm concerned about that. >> you seem less worried. >> we're more worried about the u.s. economy. i think what we're seeing now in the marketplace makes sense. we had the megabanks lead the rally late last year. we recently have switched to the regional banks outperforming the megabanks and now we're getting that normal consolidation period which is to be expected. look at the ten-year treasury yield, that's what we say. if above ten for first quarter -- above 2% for first quarter, then earnings estimates will probably go higher. wh